I don’t know what the future beholds, but I like to guess and learn from when I am wrong or right.
Thoughts on the eve of 2025
31st of December 2024:
Two full years away from the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, I think it’s safe to say that we’ve seen enough to be able to confidently say that AI will change everything. As a “Technology Window”, It’s certainly bigger than mobile and will most likely have an impact on a similar order of magnitude as the internet or computing in general (being enabled by both, as we all stand on the shoulders of giants).
At this point in time it remains unclear to me what kinds of jobs will remain once AI becomes just a bit more mature and autonomous (via Agents and the stringing together of more and more models and Agents), especially with the corresponding rise of robotics.
Based on what I’m seeing now, I think it’s certainly possible to imagine, based on exponentially more powerful models and applications, that a 5.000 people business (think a bank) could be stripped down to a group of 50 key leaders and intellectuals that together control and manage an army of agents.
Autonomous vehicles will obviously become a more and more integral part of the future and I personally think that they, in combination with ubiquitous underground tunnels, will become the future of transportation in relatively non-dense locations such as Reykjavík, while subways and micro-mobility will probably still remain the “go-to” method of transportation in bigger cities like NY and Tokyo - where traffic would always be death even if we built 10 layers of tunnels that were filled with self-driving cars.
I’ve also seen enough rapid advancement in robotics to believe that AI-infused robots will become a normal part of many people’s lives before 2030 - doing laundry and cooking dinner.
The dual ascension of AI and Robotics will obviously have major labour and socity-level implications, probably more intense than any other technology up until this point. For myself, this is a major call to action to both participate in building this new world, to ensure at least some level of “Omni-Win” incentive alignment in the rapid changes ahead, but also to re-evaluate my philosophy and attitude towards life. This is a a moment to re-evaluate ones’ attitude towards both work and life, and make sure that one has a robust stoic attitude towards whatever comes, focusing more on health, family, friends and inner peace than external measures of success in a traditional sense.
Still bullish on Bitcoin as AI agents will most likely make more capital allocation decisions than humans in the decades to come, and it would not surprise me if an AI-agent would prefer the simplicity and liquidity of something like Bitcoin as opposed to other store-of-values such as gold or real estate. Very bullish on high-quality real estate as well though: a portfolio of quality real estate, bitcoin, energy stocks and other equities that stand to gain from AI and robotics or (including AI-first startups and/or AI-friendly enterprise co’s) makes sense to me, although the devil is in the details.